Will Harry Kane win the 2026 BBC Sports Personality of the Year award?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$2.49

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 67.5¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$528.75

Total Shares872

Combined PnL-$14.88

No2 traders

Total Value$107.56

Total Shares264

Combined PnL+$12.39

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
StarMaster	Yesavg 62¢	$465	$446.25	-$18.75	53% 1833-1612 (3445)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 62.9¢	$427.71	$423.15	-$3.48	27% 281-771 (1052)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.9¢	$266.05	$251.77	-$14.3
└ No leg	Noavg 37.9¢	$160.52	$171.37	+$10.82
LE leegunnerCTR	Noavg 36¢	$91.04	$102.42	+$11.38	41% 1276-1822 (3098)
4751346	Yesavg 66.1¢	$156.11	$82.5	+$3.87	72% 1239-480 (1719)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 31.5¢	$4.13	$5.13	+$1.01	36% 14857-26971 (41828)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$465

Value

$446.25

PnL

-$18.75

Record

53%

1833-1612 (3445)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$427.71

Value

$423.15

PnL

-$3.48

Record

27%

281-771 (1052)

Both legs:

Yes$266.0562.9¢-$14.3

No$160.5237.9¢+$10.82

leegunnerCTR

Invested

$91.04

Value

$102.42

PnL

+$11.38

Record

41%

1276-1822 (3098)

4751346

Yes

Invested

$156.11

Value

$82.5

PnL

+$3.87

Record

72%

1239-480 (1719)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$4.13

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$1.01

Record

36%

14857-26971 (41828)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.