Will Harky have the most kills at Worlds 2026?

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 100¢ · $605 held · ends Dec 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 17%

Total Value

$604.86

Combined PnL

-$2.47

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$604.7

Total Shares605

Combined PnL+$0.3

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.16

Total Shares329

Combined PnL-$2.77

No — 17%Yes — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

94h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HomelessnHoeless	Noavg 99.9¢	$604.43	$604.7	+$0.3	51% 134-130 (264)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.07	$0.07	-$1.22	49% 24111-24663 (48774)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.75	$0.04	-$0.72	47% 47595-54054 (101649)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.01	$0.03	-$0.53	50% 21595-21452 (43047)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.02	-$0.27	40% 4005-6087 (10092)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.05	$0.01	-$0.04	15% 5003-29368 (34371)

HomelessnHoeless

Invested

$604.43

Value

$604.7

PnL

+$0.3

Record

51%

134-130 (264)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$1.22

Record

49%

24111-24663 (48774)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.72

Record

47%

47595-54054 (101649)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.53

Record

50%

21595-21452 (43047)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.27

Record

40%

4005-6087 (10092)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

15%

5003-29368 (34371)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

94h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.