Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will "Hard Knock Life (Ghetto Anthem)" be played at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 41¢ · $125 held · ends Feb 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$124.79
-$10.71
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA WarriorH<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $53.89 | $37.62 | -$2.74 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $32.6 | $32.15 | -$0.45 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.2¢ | $21.28 | $21.71 | +$0.43 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $19.24 | $15.47 | -$3.76 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $17.48 | $14.06 | -$3.42 | — 1-18 (19) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.5¢ | $4.53 | $3.77 | -$0.76 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
Invested
$53.89
Value
$37.62
PnL
-$2.74
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$32.6
Value
$32.15
PnL
-$0.45
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
Invested
$21.28
Value
$21.71
PnL
+$0.43
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Invested
$19.24
Value
$15.47
PnL
-$3.76
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Invested
$17.48
Value
$14.06
PnL
-$3.42
Record
—
1-18 (19)
Invested
$4.53
Value
$3.77
PnL
-$0.76
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.