Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 94¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 4

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$21.3K

Combined PnL

$58.92

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 94.3¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$20.1K

Total Shares21,311

Combined PnL+$248.52

No2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares20,020

Combined PnL-$189.6

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

157h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8	Yesavg 93.3¢	$19.7K	$19.9K	+$249.63	72% 59-23 (82)
BigRabbitCTR	Noavg 6.7¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$189.73	42% 490-682 (1172)
WA WarriorH	Yesavg 94.6¢	$150.12	$148.62	-$1.5	— 0-12 (12)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 93.9¢	$31.98	$32.19	+$0.2	— 12-2 (14)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 93.2¢	$14.12	$14.32	+$0.2	51% 265-255 (520)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Yesavg 94.5¢	$18.9	$9.45	-$0	39% 1043-1627 (2670)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 5.1¢	$1.02	$1.15	+$0.13	41% 3010-4414 (7424)

0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8

Yes

Invested

$19,692.9

Value

$19.9K

PnL

+$249.63

Record

72%

59-23 (82)

BigRabbitCTR

Invested

$1,339.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$189.73

Record

42%

490-682 (1172)

WarriorH

Yes

Invested

$150.12

Value

$148.62

PnL

-$1.5

Record

—

0-12 (12)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.98

Value

$32.19

PnL

+$0.2

Record

—

12-2 (14)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.12

Value

$14.32

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

265-255 (520)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.9

Value

$9.45

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

1043-1627 (2670)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0.13

Record

41%

3010-4414 (7424)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

157h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.5%

94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.