Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 29¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$1.5K
-$3.6
26.6¢ → 28.5¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StreamLIVE | Noavg 69.6¢ | $643.5 | $675 | +$31.5 | 55% 1254-1017 (2271) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Yesavg 27.1¢ | $497.36 | $467.59 | -$29.76 | 53% 4597-4011 (8608) |
WO WoohxCTR | Yesavg 26¢ | $312 | $306 | -$6 | 56% 113-88 (201) |
0X 0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $33.33 | $34 | +$0.67 | 54% 256-218 (474) |
StreamLIVEInvested
$643.5
Value
$675
PnL
+$31.5
Record
55%
1254-1017 (2271)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$497.36
Value
$467.59
PnL
-$29.76
Record
53%
4597-4011 (8608)
Invested
$312
Value
$306
PnL
-$6
Record
56%
113-88 (201)
Invested
$33.33
Value
$34
PnL
+$0.67
Record
54%
256-218 (474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.