Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Guillermo Rodriguez win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.43

Combined PnL

-$13.98

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.43

Total Shares852

Combined PnL-$13.98

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$3.32	$0.13	-$3.19	29% 888-2164 (3052)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$3.87	$0.1	-$3.77	40% 3214-4824 (8038)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$2.09	$0.06	-$2.04	30% 2929-6852 (9781)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.62	$0.04	-$1.58	63% 444-260 (704)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.13	$0.03	-$1.1	39% 1060-1643 (2703)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.76	$0.02	-$0.74	7% 2-28 (30)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.61	$0.02	-$0.59	37% 3428-5859 (9287)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.59	$0.02	-$0.58	47% 4794-5409 (10203)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.4	$0.01	-$0.39	36% 506-908 (1414)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.32

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$3.19

Record

29%

888-2164 (3052)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.87

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$3.77

Record

40%

3214-4824 (8038)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.04

Record

30%

2929-6852 (9781)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.62

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.58

Record

63%

444-260 (704)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.13

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.1

Record

39%

1060-1643 (2703)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.74

Record

2-28 (30)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.59

Record

37%

3428-5859 (9287)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.58

Record

47%

4794-5409 (10203)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

36%

506-908 (1414)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.