Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 94?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 95¢ · $240 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$239.69
-$1.6
94.2¢ → 94.6¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA WarriorH | Yesavg 94.5¢ | $124.32 | $121.73 | -$2.59 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 94.4¢ | $188.8 | $50.1 | +$0.27 | 50% 23-23 (46) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 92.3¢ | $46.15 | $47.3 | +$1.15 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 96.6¢ | $20.99 | $20.56 | -$0.43 | 79% 19-5 (24) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.