Will Green League win the most seats in the 2027 Finnish parliamentary election?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $246 held · ends Apr 19, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$245.63
$18.05
95.6¢ → 98.9¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
51h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 93.1¢ | $116.34 | $124.72 | +$8.38 | 39% 341-544 (885) |
 GollumGekko<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $47 | $47.85 | +$0.85 | — 5-3 (8) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.93 | +$0.02 | 36% 346-622 (968) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $9.97 | $9.98 | +$0.01 | 35% 367-681 (1048) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $9.98 | $9.89 | -$0.09 | 30% 1188-2734 (3922) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $3.28 | $8.38 | +$5.1 | 23% 118-400 (518) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $8.12 | $8.24 | +$0.12 | 38% 3843-6310 (10153) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $2.22 | $5.68 | +$3.46 | 42% 5249-7280 (12529) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $0.76 | $0.96 | +$0.2 | 29% 343-823 (1166) |
Invested
$116.34
Value
$124.72
PnL
+$8.38
Record
39%
341-544 (885)
GollumGekko<$100Invested
$47
Value
$47.85
PnL
+$0.85
Record
—
5-3 (8)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.93
PnL
+$0.02
Record
36%
346-622 (968)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.98
PnL
+$0.01
Record
35%
367-681 (1048)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$9.89
PnL
-$0.09
Record
30%
1188-2734 (3922)
Invested
$3.28
Value
$8.38
PnL
+$5.1
Record
23%
118-400 (518)
Invested
$8.12
Value
$8.24
PnL
+$0.12
Record
38%
3843-6310 (10153)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.22
Value
$5.68
PnL
+$3.46
Record
42%
5249-7280 (12529)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.76
Value
$0.96
PnL
+$0.2
Record
29%
343-823 (1166)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.