Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 87¢ · $774 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$774.25
$0.79
85.6¢ → 86.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StarMaster | Yesavg 85.7¢ | $428.35 | $428.35 | +$0 | — |
 Nostdam | Yesavg 85¢ | $229.67 | $231.48 | +$1.81 | 4% 5-109 (114) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 87¢ | $99.99 | $98.67 | -$1.32 | 10% 3-28 (31) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $10.23 | $10.44 | +$0.21 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $4.2 | $4.2 | -$0 | 39% 1053-1631 (2684) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $1.02 | $1.1 | +$0.08 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
StarMasterInvested
$428.35
Value
$428.35
PnL
+$0
Record
—
NostdamInvested
$229.67
Value
$231.48
PnL
+$1.81
Record
4%
5-109 (114)
Invested
$99.99
Value
$98.67
PnL
-$1.32
Record
10%
3-28 (31)
Invested
$10.23
Value
$10.44
PnL
+$0.21
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0
Record
39%
1053-1631 (2684)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$1.1
PnL
+$0.08
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.