Will "Grand Theft Auto VI: Pre-Load Now" get less than 10 million views on week 1?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 100¢ · $302 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$301.71

Combined PnL

-$7.01

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$301.64

Total Shares302

Combined PnL-$3.73

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.07

Total Shares34

Combined PnL-$3.28

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$70.63	$70.56	-$0.07	45% 521-645 (1166)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$33.83	$33.79	-$0.03	48% 492-535 (1027)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$31.53	$31.51	-$0.02	62% 473-292 (765)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.95	+$0.01	27% 949-2550 (3499)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.94	-$0.03	26% 871-2505 (3376)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.94	-$0.03	9% 3-29 (32)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$21.61	$21.59	-$0.02	62% 471-291 (762)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$18.96	$18.97	+$0	25% 92-281 (373)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$12.08	$12.07	-$0.01	58% 481-347 (828)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$12.06	$12.05	-$0.01	47% 544-625 (1169)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$23.13	$11.29	-$3.51	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$0.98	$0.04	-$0.94	25% 1250-3715 (4965)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$2.37	$0.03	-$2.34	47% 4825-5515 (10340)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$70.63

Value

$70.56

PnL

-$0.07

Record

45%

521-645 (1166)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$33.83

Value

$33.79

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$31.53

Value

$31.51

PnL

-$0.02

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.95

PnL

+$0.01

Record

27%

949-2550 (3499)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.94

PnL

-$0.03

Record

26%

871-2505 (3376)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.94

PnL

-$0.03

Record

3-29 (32)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$21.61

Value

$21.59

PnL

-$0.02

Record

62%

471-291 (762)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$18.96

Value

$18.97

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

92-281 (373)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$12.08

Value

$12.07

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

481-347 (828)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$12.06

Value

$12.05

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$23.13

Value

$11.29

PnL

-$3.51

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.94

Record

25%

1250-3715 (4965)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.37

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.34

Record

47%

4825-5515 (10340)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.