Will "Grand Theft Auto VI: Pre-Load Now" get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 99¢ · $454 held · ends Nov 18

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$454.11

Combined PnL

$7.43

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 98.9¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$447.21

Total Shares449

Combined PnL+$1.31

Yes1 trader

Total Value$6.9

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$6.12

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.5¢	$223.1	$208.95	-$2.3	47% 4825-5515 (10340)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$70.35	$70.35	+$0	62% 471-291 (762)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$48.59	$48.76	+$0.16	40% 1475-2199 (3674)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$33.69	$33.69	+$0	48% 510-557 (1067)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$29.85	$29.85	+$0	26% 871-2505 (3376)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.89	$29.85	-$0.04	9% 3-29 (32)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$16.06	$16.06	+$0	47% 524-596 (1120)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$0.78	$6.9	+$6.12	25% 1250-3715 (4965)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 65.5¢	$9.83	$4.98	+$3.48	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.73	$4.74	+$0	62% 473-292 (765)

balthazar

Invested

$223.1

Value

$208.95

PnL

-$2.3

Record

47%

4825-5515 (10340)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$70.35

Value

$70.35

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

471-291 (762)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$48.59

Value

$48.76

PnL

+$0.16

Record

40%

1475-2199 (3674)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$33.69

Value

$33.69

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.85

Value

$29.85

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

871-2505 (3376)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$29.89

Value

$29.85

PnL

-$0.04

Record

3-29 (32)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$16.06

Value

$16.06

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

524-596 (1120)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$6.12

Record

25%

1250-3715 (4965)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$9.83

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$3.48

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.73

Value

$4.74

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.