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9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 97¢ · $263 held · ends Nov 18

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$263.15

Combined PnL

-$4.46

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 97.1¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$263.06

Total Shares267

Combined PnL-$3.12

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.06

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$1.34

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$70.35	$70.42	+$0.07	47% 544-625 (1169)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$59.75	$58.05	-$1.7	25% 92-281 (373)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$33.69	$33.72	+$0.03	62% 473-292 (765)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$31.5	$30.56	-$0.93	48% 492-535 (1027)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$29.85	$29.88	+$0.03	9% 3-29 (32)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$18.92	$18.92	+$0	27% 949-2550 (3499)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$12.04	$11.69	-$0.36	62% 471-291 (762)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 53.5¢	$5.34	$5.07	-$0.27	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$4.74	$4.74	+$0	47% 524-596 (1120)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.4	$0.06	-$1.34	25% 1250-3715 (4965)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$70.35

Value

$70.42

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$59.75

Value

$58.05

PnL

-$1.7

Record

25%

92-281 (373)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$33.69

Value

$33.72

PnL

+$0.03

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$31.5

Value

$30.56

PnL

-$0.93

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$29.85

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$0.03

Record

3-29 (32)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$18.92

Value

$18.92

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

949-2550 (3499)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$12.04

Value

$11.69

PnL

-$0.36

Record

62%

471-291 (762)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$5.34

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0.27

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.74

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

524-596 (1120)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.34

Record

25%

1250-3715 (4965)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.