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6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 73¢ · $279 held · ends Nov 18

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$278.87

Combined PnL

-$8.14

Smart Money Entry

80.7¢ → 72.5¢

-10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$275.26

Total Shares350

Combined PnL-$8.74

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.6

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0.6

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 82.9¢	$169.6	$159.49	-$10.11	38% 65-105 (170)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 76.6¢	$76.14	$77.99	+$1.86	40% 3249-4894 (8143)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 79¢	$9.62	$9.5	-$0.12	62% 473-292 (765)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 79¢	$9.55	$9.43	-$0.12	58% 481-347 (828)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 79¢	$9.54	$9.42	-$0.12	48% 510-557 (1067)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 79¢	$9.54	$9.41	-$0.12	47% 544-625 (1169)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$3	$3.6	+$0.6	25% 1250-3715 (4965)

Haradwaith

Invested

$169.6

Value

$159.49

PnL

-$10.11

Record

38%

65-105 (170)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$76.14

Value

$77.99

PnL

+$1.86

Record

40%

3249-4894 (8143)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$9.62

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.12

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$9.55

Value

$9.43

PnL

-$0.12

Record

58%

481-347 (828)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.54

Value

$9.42

PnL

-$0.12

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.54

Value

$9.41

PnL

-$0.12

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

25%

1250-3715 (4965)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.