Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

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9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 28¢ · $167 held · ends Nov 18

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$167.1

Combined PnL

$24.76

Smart Money Entry

20¢ → 28.5¢

+42% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$135.82

Total Shares536

Combined PnL+$24.26

Yes2 traders

Total Value$31.28

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$0.51

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$56.27	$65.59	+$9.32	44% 11-14 (25)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 25.4¢	$57.51	$36.16	+$6.98	40% 3249-4894 (8143)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 74.5¢	$29.95	$15.68	+$0.2	38% 65-105 (170)
AH aHjCz<$100	Yesavg 76.5¢	$15.29	$15.6	+$0.31	25% 1250-3715 (4965)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$6.63	$9.16	+$2.53	47% 544-625 (1169)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$6.3	$8.7	+$2.4	27% 949-2550 (3499)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$6	$6.3	+$0.3	29% 892-2183 (3075)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$2.54	$3.51	+$0.97	47% 524-596 (1120)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$2.54	$3.5	+$0.97	48% 492-535 (1027)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.1	$1.52	+$0.42	65% 4172-2205 (6377)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1	$1.38	+$0.38	58% 481-347 (828)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Invested

$56.27

Value

$65.59

PnL

+$9.32

Record

44%

11-14 (25)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$57.51

Value

$36.16

PnL

+$6.98

Record

40%

3249-4894 (8143)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.95

Value

$15.68

PnL

+$0.2

Record

38%

65-105 (170)

aHjCz<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.29

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$0.31

Record

25%

1250-3715 (4965)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$6.63

Value

$9.16

PnL

+$2.53

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$2.4

Record

27%

949-2550 (3499)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

29%

892-2183 (3075)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.54

Value

$3.51

PnL

+$0.97

Record

47%

524-596 (1120)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.54

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.97

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$0.42

Record

65%

4172-2205 (6377)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.38

Record

58%

481-347 (828)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.