Will "Grand Theft Auto VI: Pre-Load Now" get at least 50 million views on week 1?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 99¢ · $496 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$496.19

Combined PnL

$0.71

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 99.5¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$495.69

Total Shares499

Combined PnL+$0.67

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.5

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0.04

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.5¢	$223.1	$208.7	-$2.55	47% 4825-5515 (10340)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$70.35	$70.28	-$0.07	48% 492-535 (1027)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$36.16	$36.13	-$0.03	48% 510-557 (1067)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$33.69	$33.66	-$0.03	47% 544-625 (1169)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$33.54	$33.51	-$0.03	45% 521-645 (1166)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$29.85	$29.82	-$0.03	40% 1475-2199 (3674)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$29.85	$29.82	-$0.03	27% 949-2550 (3499)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.82	-$0.12	9% 3-29 (32)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$18.91	$18.89	-$0.02	26% 871-2505 (3376)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$9.82	$5.08	+$3.59	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$0.46	$0.5	+$0.04	25% 1250-3715 (4965)

balthazar

Invested

$223.1

Value

$208.7

PnL

-$2.55

Record

47%

4825-5515 (10340)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$70.35

Value

$70.28

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$36.16

Value

$36.13

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$33.69

Value

$33.66

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$33.54

Value

$33.51

PnL

-$0.03

Record

45%

521-645 (1166)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.85

Value

$29.82

PnL

-$0.03

Record

40%

1475-2199 (3674)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.85

Value

$29.82

PnL

-$0.03

Record

27%

949-2550 (3499)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.82

PnL

-$0.12

Record

3-29 (32)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$18.91

Value

$18.89

PnL

-$0.02

Record

26%

871-2505 (3376)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$9.82

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$3.59

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.04

Record

25%

1250-3715 (4965)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.