Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $691 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$690.67
-$4.29
90.5¢ → 91¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 91.5¢ | $366 | $368 | +$2 | 56% 15268-11796 (27064) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 89.9¢ | $116.83 | $101.05 | -$7.62 | 23% 288-962 (1250) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $87 | $91 | +$4 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 91¢ | $147.63 | $85.12 | -$3.17 | 42% 5201-7128 (12329) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $45 | $45.5 | +$0.5 | 18% 519-2318 (2837) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$366
Value
$368
PnL
+$2
Record
56%
15268-11796 (27064)
IstarothInvested
$116.83
Value
$101.05
PnL
-$7.62
Record
23%
288-962 (1250)
Invested
$87
Value
$91
PnL
+$4
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
Invested
$147.63
Value
$85.12
PnL
-$3.17
Record
42%
5201-7128 (12329)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$45
Value
$45.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
18%
519-2318 (2837)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.