Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$90.39

Smart Money Entry

84.1¢ → 90.5¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,375

Combined PnL+$11.13

Yes2 traders

Total Value$83.32

Total Shares667

Combined PnL+$79.26

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 83.7¢	$762.23	$745.38	-$4.63	23% 288-966 (1254)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 83.3¢	$417.2	$345.79	+$14.46	32% 4361-9392 (13753)
2B9S	Noavg 86.5¢	$266.56	$239.15	+$1.3	18% 3784-17135 (20919)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 15.6¢	$143.28	$79.46	+$78.48	36% 15095-27224 (42319)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$3.09	$3.86	+$0.77	53% 6406-5609 (12015)

Istaroth

Invested

$762.23

Value

$745.38

PnL

-$4.63

Record

23%

288-966 (1254)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$417.2

Value

$345.79

PnL

+$14.46

Record

32%

4361-9392 (13753)

2B9S

Invested

$266.56

Value

$239.15

PnL

+$1.3

Record

18%

3784-17135 (20919)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$143.28

Value

$79.46

PnL

+$78.48

Record

36%

15095-27224 (42319)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$0.77

Record

53%

6406-5609 (12015)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.8%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.