Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 49¢ · $452 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$451.82
$152.43
Research grade
NeutralYes at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $343.46 | $335.66 | -$4.59 | 18% 365-1632 (1997) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76.8¢ | $257.77 | $172.17 | -$85.62 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $80.84 | $163.49 | +$81.02 | |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $14.73 | $56.37 | +$41.17 | 18% 3832-17368 (21200) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.8¢ | $31.94 | $44.25 | +$20.99 | 53% 6687-5886 (12573) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $336.6 | $15.53 | +$90.27 | 36% 16052-28068 (44120) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$343.46
Value
$335.66
PnL
-$4.59
Record
18%
365-1632 (1997)
Both legs:
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$14.73
Value
$56.37
PnL
+$41.17
Record
18%
3832-17368 (21200)
Invested
$31.94
Value
$44.25
PnL
+$20.99
Record
53%
6687-5886 (12573)
Invested
$336.6
Value
$15.53
PnL
+$90.27
Record
36%
16052-28068 (44120)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.