Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (82%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 18¢ · $546 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$545.91
$0.9
48.8¢ → 18.4¢
-62% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+25 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
404h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 The-Joker | Yesavg 42.2¢ | $108.21 | $192.4 | +$82.13 | 68% 1488-691 (2179) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 73.8¢ | $195.41 | $179.51 | -$1.48 | 29% 279-667 (946) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 52.8¢ | $131.44 | $106.36 | -$25.07 | 35% 14716-26896 (41612) |
RA ratedCTR | Noavg 43.8¢ | $130.42 | $63.96 | -$53.96 | 29% 2847-6939 (9786) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $4.4 | $3.68 | -$0.72 | 43% 132-178 (310) |
The-JokerInvested
$108.21
Value
$192.4
PnL
+$82.13
Record
68%
1488-691 (2179)
IstarothInvested
$195.41
Value
$179.51
PnL
-$1.48
Record
29%
279-667 (946)
Invested
$131.44
Value
$106.36
PnL
-$25.07
Record
35%
14716-26896 (41612)
Invested
$130.42
Value
$63.96
PnL
-$53.96
Record
29%
2847-6939 (9786)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$3.68
PnL
-$0.72
Record
43%
132-178 (310)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.