Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 82¢ · $168 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$168.15
-$17.33
81.3¢ → 81.7¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Late
231h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 78.2¢ | $55.55 | $55.33 | -$0.22 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
 HoshinoAI | Yesavg 85.1¢ | $114.41 | $48.43 | -$14.9 | 48% 10-11 (21) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 81.3¢ | $36.78 | $36.44 | -$0.34 | 41% 3104-4461 (7565) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Yesavg 77.8¢ | $20.18 | $20 | -$0.18 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 22.8¢ | $7.45 | $5.81 | -$1.64 | 13% 20-131 (151) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Yesavg 83.9¢ | $2.18 | $2.14 | -$0.04 | — 1-18 (19) |
Invested
$55.55
Value
$55.33
PnL
-$0.22
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
HoshinoAIInvested
$114.41
Value
$48.43
PnL
-$14.9
Record
48%
10-11 (21)
Invested
$36.78
Value
$36.44
PnL
-$0.34
Record
41%
3104-4461 (7565)
Invested
$20.18
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.18
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$7.45
Value
$5.81
PnL
-$1.64
Record
13%
20-131 (151)
Invested
$2.18
Value
$2.14
PnL
-$0.04
Record
—
1-18 (19)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.