Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (96%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Google be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 4.3¢ · $627 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$626.95
$546.43
36.1¢ → 4.3¢
-88% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 38.2¢ | $389.68 | $578.67 | +$388.09 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 4.5¢ | $1 | $20.64 | +$19.64 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.2¢ | $0.58 | $16.97 | +$16.39 | 36% 2033-3638 (5671) |
 KimchiCapital<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $7.73 | $8.27 | +$102.09 | 76% 525-162 (687) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 29.2¢ | $29.18 | $2.4 | +$20.22 | 18% 3784-17134 (20918) |
Invested
$389.68
Value
$578.67
PnL
+$388.09
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
Invested
$1
Value
$20.64
PnL
+$19.64
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
Invested
$0.58
Value
$16.97
PnL
+$16.39
Record
36%
2033-3638 (5671)
KimchiCapital<$100Invested
$7.73
Value
$8.27
PnL
+$102.09
Record
76%
525-162 (687)
2B9S<$100Invested
$29.18
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$20.22
Record
18%
3784-17134 (20918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.