Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$3.5K
$1.1K
52.4¢ → 89.5¢
+71% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
620h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 44.8¢ | $947.25 | $1.9K | +$954.1 | 53% 1100-980 (2080) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 61¢ | $1.6K | $1.3K | +$107.46 | 36% 14842-26964 (41806) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 82.9¢ | $201.21 | $216.12 | +$0.3 | 42% 5193-7116 (12309) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Noavg 34.9¢ | $23.2 | $60.07 | +$36.87 | 36% 2027-3621 (5648) |
BI BikesAreTheBikes<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $14.3 | $33.49 | +$19.19 | 39% 1759-2790 (4549) |
Invested
$947.25
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$954.1
Record
53%
1100-980 (2080)
Invested
$1,590.94
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$107.46
Record
36%
14842-26964 (41806)
Invested
$201.21
Value
$216.12
PnL
+$0.3
Record
42%
5193-7116 (12309)
Invested
$23.2
Value
$60.07
PnL
+$36.87
Record
36%
2027-3621 (5648)
Invested
$14.3
Value
$33.49
PnL
+$19.19
Record
39%
1759-2790 (4549)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.