Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 56¢ · $661 held · ends Dec 1

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$660.81

Combined PnL

$31.38

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 55.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$516.77

Total Shares594

Combined PnL+$27.06

Yes1 trader

Total Value$144.03

Total Shares196

Combined PnL+$4.32

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 54.4¢	$557.88	$480.51	+$28.57	36% 15157-27275 (42432)
2B9SCTR	Yesavg 45.4¢	$139.71	$144.03	+$4.32	18% 3791-17157 (20948)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 55¢	$19.46	$19.3	-$0	22% 291-1025 (1316)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 61¢	$12.2	$9.4	-$2.8	42% 5204-7132 (12336)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 39¢	$6.28	$7.57	+$1.29	52% 2449-2263 (4712)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$557.88

Value

$480.51

PnL

+$28.57

Record

36%

15157-27275 (42432)

2B9SCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.71

Value

$144.03

PnL

+$4.32

Record

18%

3791-17157 (20948)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$19.46

Value

$19.3

PnL

-$0

Record

22%

291-1025 (1316)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$12.2

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$2.8

Record

42%

5204-7132 (12336)

merod<$100

Invested

$6.28

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$1.29

Record

52%

2449-2263 (4712)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.5%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.