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5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 59¢ · $232 held · ends Dec 1

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$232.23

Combined PnL

-$66.49

Smart Money Entry

70.6¢ → 59.5¢

-16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$196.56

Total Shares331

Combined PnL-$85.94

Yes4 traders

Total Value$35.67

Total Shares77

Combined PnL+$19.45

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

136h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 70.2¢	$376.79	$157.79	-$83.2	32% 21135-45368 (66503)
balthazar<$100	No	$29.73	$29.73	+$0	30% 35274-83611 (118885)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$13.57	$19.53	+$5.96	62% 35853-22264 (58117)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$1.03	$13.93	+$12.9	55% 42133-34031 (76164)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$9.65	$7.43	-$2.22	30% 2914-6654 (9568)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.9	$1.29	+$0.39	43% 18503-24146 (42649)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$1.48	$1.07	-$0.41	23% 8528-28959 (37487)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.14	$0.93	+$0.21	52% 164-153 (317)
SP SpringlyFawl<$100	Noavg 95¢	$0.66	$0.54	-$0.12	23% 2589-8836 (11425)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$376.79

Value

$157.79

PnL

-$83.2

Record

32%

21135-45368 (66503)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$29.73

Value

$29.73

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

35274-83611 (118885)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.57

Value

$19.53

PnL

+$5.96

Record

62%

35853-22264 (58117)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$13.93

PnL

+$12.9

Record

55%

42133-34031 (76164)

123987456<$100

Invested

$9.65

Value

$7.43

PnL

-$2.22

Record

30%

2914-6654 (9568)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$1.29

PnL

+$0.39

Record

43%

18503-24146 (42649)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$0.41

Record

23%

8528-28959 (37487)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.21

Record

52%

164-153 (317)

SpringlyFawl<$100

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.12

Record

23%

2589-8836 (11425)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

136h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.4%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.