Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (81%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 19¢ · $545 held · ends Oct 31

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$545

Combined PnL

$70.48

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 18.8¢

-76% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$545.01

Total Shares550

Combined PnL+$70.48

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR	Noavg 73¢	$94.65	$127.01	+$32.36	61% 20693-13116 (33809)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 78.5¢	$100.03	$108.95	+$8.92	36% 14865-26983 (41848)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 82¢	$98.09	$80	-$11.17	26% 281-787 (1068)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Noavg 89.7¢	$65.49	$71.48	+$5.99	48% 3419-3695 (7114)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$25.17	$32.48	+$7.31	31% 309-674 (983)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$22.51	$29.05	+$6.54	32% 315-677 (992)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$22.51	$29.05	+$6.54	30% 259-603 (862)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$17.39	$22.44	+$5.05	28% 190-480 (670)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$16.84	$22.44	+$5.6	40% 386-581 (967)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$16.82	$19.59	+$2.77	42% 5196-7120 (12316)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$1.95	$2.52	+$0.57	31% 292-648 (940)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$94.65

Value

$127.01

PnL

+$32.36

Record

61%

20693-13116 (33809)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$100.03

Value

$108.95

PnL

+$8.92

Record

36%

14865-26983 (41848)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$98.09

Value

$80

PnL

-$11.17

Record

26%

281-787 (1068)

alex20011CTR<$100

Invested

$65.49

Value

$71.48

PnL

+$5.99

Record

48%

3419-3695 (7114)

pollo07CTR<$100

Invested

$25.17

Value

$32.48

PnL

+$7.31

Record

31%

309-674 (983)

akrollCTR<$100

Invested

$22.51

Value

$29.05

PnL

+$6.54

Record

32%

315-677 (992)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$22.51

Value

$29.05

PnL

+$6.54

Record

30%

259-603 (862)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Invested

$17.39

Value

$22.44

PnL

+$5.05

Record

28%

190-480 (670)

zerone777CTR<$100

Invested

$16.84

Value

$22.44

PnL

+$5.6

Record

40%

386-581 (967)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

$16.82

Value

$19.59

PnL

+$2.77

Record

42%

5196-7120 (12316)

klli27CTR<$100

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$0.57

Record

31%

292-648 (940)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.4%

18.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$390.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

490.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.