Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 85¢ · $90 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$90.5
-$0.02
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $34.13 | $35.78 | +$1.65 | 41% 3094-4461 (7555) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $24.64 | $24.08 | -$0.56 | — 1-18 (19) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $13.6 | $13.6 | +$0 | 48% 23-25 (48) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $8.6 | $8.5 | -$0.1 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $8.47 | $8.09 | -$0.38 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $3.74 | $0.45 | -$0.63 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
Invested
$34.13
Value
$35.78
PnL
+$1.65
Record
41%
3094-4461 (7555)
Invested
$24.64
Value
$24.08
PnL
-$0.56
Record
—
1-18 (19)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$13.6
Value
$13.6
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
23-25 (48)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$8.47
Value
$8.09
PnL
-$0.38
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
Invested
$3.74
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$0.63
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.