Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 43m?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.6K
$32.87
92.3¢ → 92.4¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 cat-dog | Noavg 91.2¢ | $912.31 | $944.5 | +$32.19 | 77% 104-31 (135) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 93.6¢ | $463.07 | $441.1 | -$12.41 | 17% 393-1939 (2332) |
 balthazar | Noavg 95.2¢ | $171.17 | $172.53 | +$1.36 | 55% 25912-21183 (47095) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $19.04 | $19.07 | +$0.02 | 57% 17226-12892 (30118) |
 NostdamCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $2.8 | $4.44 | +$1.64 | 54% 1438-1236 (2674) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $9.38 | $3.44 | +$10.06 | 35% 16906-31245 (48151) |
cat-dogInvested
$912.31
Value
$944.5
PnL
+$32.19
Record
77%
104-31 (135)
IstarothInvested
$463.07
Value
$441.1
PnL
-$12.41
Record
17%
393-1939 (2332)
balthazarInvested
$171.17
Value
$172.53
PnL
+$1.36
Record
55%
25912-21183 (47095)
Invested
$19.04
Value
$19.07
PnL
+$0.02
Record
57%
17226-12892 (30118)
NostdamCTR<$100Invested
$2.8
Value
$4.44
PnL
+$1.64
Record
54%
1438-1236 (2674)
Invested
$9.38
Value
$3.44
PnL
+$10.06
Record
35%
16906-31245 (48151)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.