Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 12¢ · $409 held · ends Nov 15

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$408.65

Combined PnL

-$204.29

Smart Money Entry

18.1¢ → 11.8¢

-35% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$312.41

Total Shares341

Combined PnL+$6.46

Yes5 traders

Total Value$96.24

Total Shares1,578

Combined PnL-$210.74

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel	Noavg 93.9¢	$126.77	$119.07	-$7.7	33% 225-451 (676)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 85.8¢	$86.57	$94.75	+$8.17	63% 720-431 (1151)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$64.27	$70.43	+$6.16	28% 1016-2624 (3640)
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR	Yesavg 19.7¢	$225.76	$69.78	-$155.98	— 11-4 (15)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$28.35	$28.17	-$0.18	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$47.1	$17.05	-$14.05	39% 3622-5713 (9335)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$20.2	$6.16	-$14.04	50% 704-694 (1398)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$128.83	$2.03	-$23.89	44% 5060-6556 (11616)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4	$1.22	-$2.78	27% 679-1844 (2523)

quietparcel

Invested

$126.77

Value

$119.07

PnL

-$7.7

Record

33%

225-451 (676)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$86.57

Value

$94.75

PnL

+$8.17

Record

63%

720-431 (1151)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$64.27

Value

$70.43

PnL

+$6.16

Record

28%

1016-2624 (3640)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR

Yes

Invested

$225.76

Value

$69.78

PnL

-$155.98

Record

—

11-4 (15)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.35

Value

$28.17

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.1

Value

$17.05

PnL

-$14.05

Record

39%

3622-5713 (9335)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.2

Value

$6.16

PnL

-$14.04

Record

50%

704-694 (1398)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$128.83

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$23.89

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$2.78

Record

27%

679-1844 (2523)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.3%

11.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$651.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

751.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.