Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 83¢ · $747 held · ends Nov 15

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$746.77

Combined PnL

$94.97

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 82.5¢

+28% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$618.9

Total Shares840

Combined PnL+$76.41

Yes1 trader

Total Value$39.76

Total Shares142

Combined PnL+$18.56

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JokerTheClown	Noavg 65¢	$380.83	$421.84	+$41.01	7% 15-201 (216)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 64¢	$86.4	$111.38	+$24.97	29% 1098-2660 (3758)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 31.2¢	$203.43	$88.11	-$32.17	39% 3622-5713 (9335)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.2¢	$88.29	$49.54	-$24.81
└ No leg	Noavg 72.8¢	$34.04	$38.58	-$7.36
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 64¢	$48	$54	+$6	33% 225-451 (676)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$66.2	$39.76	+$18.56	50% 704-694 (1398)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 61¢	$18.3	$21.6	+$3.3	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 64¢	$8.96	$10.08	+$1.12	51% 748-722 (1470)

JokerTheClown

Invested

$380.83

Value

$421.84

PnL

+$41.01

Record

15-201 (216)

northdrawer

Invested

$86.4

Value

$111.38

PnL

+$24.97

Record

29%

1098-2660 (3758)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$203.43

Value

$88.11

PnL

-$32.17

Record

39%

3622-5713 (9335)

Both legs:

Yes$88.2931.2¢-$24.81

No$34.0472.8¢-$7.36

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$54

PnL

+$6

Record

33%

225-451 (676)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.2

Value

$39.76

PnL

+$18.56

Record

50%

704-694 (1398)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.3

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$3.3

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$8.96

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$1.12

Record

51%

748-722 (1470)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.