Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 1 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (10%) · Yes at 47¢ · $544 held · ends Nov 15

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 10%

Total Value

$544.35

Combined PnL

-$2.17

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 10 top traders (10%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$381.33

Total Shares820

Combined PnL-$17.41

No9 traders

Total Value$163.02

Total Shares257

Combined PnL+$15.24

Yes — 10%No — 90%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR	Yesavg 48.6¢	$398.74	$381.33	-$17.41	— 4-1 (5)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 55.4¢	$199.47	$53.5	+$7	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 51.4¢	$38.55	$44.25	+$5.7	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 72¢	$21.6	$17.7	-$3.9	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 51.3¢	$10.42	$12	+$1.58	51% 742-710 (1452)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 50¢	$10	$11.8	+$1.8	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 52¢	$7.88	$8.94	+$1.06	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 51¢	$7.71	$8.92	+$1.21	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.61	$2.96	+$0.35	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 50¢	$2.51	$2.96	+$0.45	49% 731-768 (1499)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR

Yes

Invested

$398.74

Value

$381.33

PnL

-$17.41

Record

—

4-1 (5)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$199.47

Value

$53.5

PnL

+$7

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$38.55

Value

$44.25

PnL

+$5.7

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$21.6

Value

$17.7

PnL

-$3.9

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.42

Value

$12

PnL

+$1.58

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$11.8

PnL

+$1.8

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$7.88

Value

$8.94

PnL

+$1.06

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$7.71

Value

$8.92

PnL

+$1.21

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.96

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.51

Value

$2.96

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 10 top traders (10%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.