Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $423 held · ends Nov 15

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$422.6

Combined PnL

-$80.92

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 97.4¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$394.04

Total Shares394

Combined PnL+$9.68

Yes3 traders

Total Value$28.57

Total Shares614

Combined PnL-$90.6

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 98.6¢	$99.52	$100.85	+$1.33	49% 789-829 (1618)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 99¢	$99.88	$100.8	+$0.91	51% 809-769 (1578)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.52	$79.56	+$0.04	39% 228-360 (588)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98¢	$73.5	$74.93	+$1.42	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 80¢	$24	$29.97	+$5.97	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.7¢	$78.62	$18.58	-$60.04	39% 3649-5778 (9427)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$107.3	$9.43	-$28.71	43% 5075-6628 (11703)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$7.93	$7.93	+$0	34% 234-460 (694)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$2.4	$0.56	-$1.84	50% 723-711 (1434)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$99.52

Value

$100.85

PnL

+$1.33

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$99.88

Value

$100.8

PnL

+$0.91

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$79.52

Value

$79.56

PnL

+$0.04

Record

39%

228-360 (588)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$73.5

Value

$74.93

PnL

+$1.42

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$5.97

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.62

Value

$18.58

PnL

-$60.04

Record

39%

3649-5778 (9427)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$107.3

Value

$9.43

PnL

-$28.71

Record

43%

5075-6628 (11703)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$7.93

Value

$7.93

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

234-460 (694)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$1.84

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.