Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 11m?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 6.7¢ · $440 held · ends Nov 15

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$440.3

Combined PnL

-$516.57

Smart Money Entry

35.3¢ → 6.7¢

-81% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$389.87

Total Shares394

Combined PnL-$14.29

Yes2 traders

Total Value$50.43

Total Shares1,576

Combined PnL-$502.29

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 99¢	$133.64	$133.65	+$0.01	42% 1624-2283 (3907)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99¢	$99.94	$99.94	-$0	46% 1081-1285 (2366)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98¢	$98.83	$99.89	+$1.06	58% 705-507 (1212)
SH shovelingdiggingCTR	Yesavg 45¢	$450	$32	-$418	— 6-10 (16)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91¢	$27.3	$29.7	+$2.4	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$55.29	$24.75	+$7.95	72% 841-329 (1170)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 18.5¢	$160.88	$18.43	-$84.29	39% 3622-5713 (9335)
balthazar	Noavg 99¢	$238.67	$1.94	-$25.71	44% 5060-6556 (11616)

haveagoodday

Invested

$133.64

Value

$133.65

PnL

+$0.01

Record

42%

1624-2283 (3907)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$99.94

Value

$99.94

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

1081-1285 (2366)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$98.83

Value

$99.89

PnL

+$1.06

Record

58%

705-507 (1212)

shovelingdiggingCTR

Yes

Invested

$450

Value

$32

PnL

-$418

Record

—

6-10 (16)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$27.3

Value

$29.7

PnL

+$2.4

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$55.29

Value

$24.75

PnL

+$7.95

Record

72%

841-329 (1170)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$160.88

Value

$18.43

PnL

-$84.29

Record

39%

3622-5713 (9335)

balthazar

Invested

$238.67

Value

$1.94

PnL

-$25.71

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.1%

6.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1141.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

1241.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.