Will global temperature increase by more than 1.54ºC in November 2026?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 81¢ · $698 held · ends Jan 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$698.46
$3.31
Research grade
NeutralYes at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RU russell110320 | Yesavg 77.5¢ | $565.62 | $587.44 | +$21.82 | — 0-3 (3) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $35.74 | $34.85 | -$0.89 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 22.1¢ | $34.83 | $30.74 | -$4.09 | 11% 35-271 (306) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $27.17 | $18.44 | -$8.73 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 19.5¢ | $15.6 | $15.6 | +$0 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $16.2 | $11.4 | -$4.8 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
Invested
$565.62
Value
$587.44
PnL
+$21.82
Record
—
0-3 (3)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$35.74
Value
$34.85
PnL
-$0.89
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$34.83
Value
$30.74
PnL
-$4.09
Record
11%
35-271 (306)
Invested
$27.17
Value
$18.44
PnL
-$8.73
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$15.6
Value
$15.6
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$11.4
PnL
-$4.8
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.