Will global temperature increase by between 1.50ºC and 1.54ºC in November 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 84¢ · $324 held · ends Jan 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$323.91
-$9.03
86.9¢ → 83.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 43%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 86.3¢ | $71.28 | $72.72 | +$1.44 | 5% 16-322 (338) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $69.6 | $66.8 | -$2.8 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $69.31 | $65.76 | -$3.54 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $65.25 | $62.63 | -$2.63 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $51.6 | $50.1 | -$1.5 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $5.9 | $5.9 | +$0 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
Invested
$71.28
Value
$72.72
PnL
+$1.44
Record
5%
16-322 (338)
balthazar<$100Invested
$69.6
Value
$66.8
PnL
-$2.8
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$69.31
Value
$65.76
PnL
-$3.54
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$65.25
Value
$62.63
PnL
-$2.63
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$51.6
Value
$50.1
PnL
-$1.5
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$5.9
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.