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FrozenParasiteYesNoYesNo
paddaaCTRNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will Giovanna Simpson win the next Burnie mayoral election?
Resolved Yes. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
No 50%
Total Value
$799.72
Combined PnL
$85
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$541.22
Total Shares551
Combined PnL+$426.74
No3 traders
Total Value$258.5
Total Shares920
Combined PnL-$341.74
Yes — 40%No — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FrozenParasite | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $90.96 | $480.71 | +$389.75 | 55% 453-367 (820) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 46.6¢ | $420.5 | $258.5 | +$30.21 | 36% 15210-27314 (42524) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $35.45 | $60.51 | +$36.99 | 53% 1123-1006 (2129) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $6.89 | — | -$0.96 | 77% 11171-3425 (14596) |
paddaaCTR | Noavg 67.9¢ | $371 | — | -$371 | 57% 823-628 (1451) |
FrozenParasiteInvested
$90.96
Value
$480.71
PnL
+$389.75
Record
55%
453-367 (820)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTRInvested
$420.5
Value
$258.5
PnL
+$30.21
Record
36%
15210-27314 (42524)
SN
SnapElectionAvoider<$100Invested
$35.45
Value
$60.51
PnL
+$36.99
Record
53%
1123-1006 (2129)
EL
Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100Invested
$6.89
Value
—
PnL
-$0.96
Record
77%
11171-3425 (14596)
paddaaCTRInvested
$371
Value
—
PnL
-$371
Record
57%
823-628 (1451)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4aaaa855...ec7df2
Slug
will-giovanna-simpson-win-the-next-burnie-mayoral-election