Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$15.43

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 53¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$317.28

Total Shares599

Combined PnL+$15.49

Yes2 traders

Total Value$99.03

Total Shares190

Combined PnL-$0.06

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

864h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 49¢	$867.02	$847.88	+$4.43	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
└ No leg	Noavg 49¢	$470.33	$508.99	+$38.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.7¢	$372.95	$338.89	-$34.47
Filobestia	Noavg 45¢	$131	$154.29	+$13.1	91% 60-6 (66)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$99.02	$95.4	+$1.37	42% 5392-7314 (12706)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 53.8¢	$79.12	$77.92	-$1.21	50% 657-658 (1315)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 50¢	$30.01	$31.8	+$2	47% 8350-9514 (17864)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 50¢	$20	$21.2	+$1.2	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 52¢	$16.19	$16.5	+$0.31	51% 3681-3532 (7213)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 52¢	$10.04	$10.23	+$0.19	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 54¢	$5.44	$5.34	-$0.1	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$8.02	$3.63	-$1.43	77% 12289-3775 (16064)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$867.02

Value

$847.88

PnL

+$4.43

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

Both legs:

No$470.3349¢+$38.9

Yes$372.9551.7¢-$34.47

Filobestia

Invested

$131

Value

$154.29

PnL

+$13.1

Record

91%

60-6 (66)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.02

Value

$95.4

PnL

+$1.37

Record

42%

5392-7314 (12706)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$79.12

Value

$77.92

PnL

-$1.21

Record

50%

657-658 (1315)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$30.01

Value

$31.8

PnL

+$2

Record

47%

8350-9514 (17864)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$21.2

PnL

+$1.2

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$16.19

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$0.31

Record

51%

3681-3532 (7213)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$10.04

Value

$10.23

PnL

+$0.19

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$5.44

Value

$5.34

PnL

-$0.1

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.02

Value

$3.63

PnL

-$1.43

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

864h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.0%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.