Will Gilad Kariv be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $220 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$219.55
$0.95
99¢ → 99.9¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $114.88 | $114.83 | -$0.06 | 29% 854-2135 (2989) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $29.5 | $29.96 | +$0.46 | 40% 1420-2155 (3575) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $29.1 | $29.96 | +$0.86 | 18% 60-275 (335) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $29.13 | $29.79 | +$0.65 | 53% 5440-4884 (10324) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.99 | $7.99 | -$0 | 36% 3035-5349 (8384) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.99 | $6.99 | -$0 | 78% 249-70 (319) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $1 | $0.05 | -$0.95 | 41% 3059-4446 (7505) |
Invested
$114.88
Value
$114.83
PnL
-$0.06
Record
29%
854-2135 (2989)
Invested
$29.5
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$0.46
Record
40%
1420-2155 (3575)
Invested
$29.1
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$0.86
Record
18%
60-275 (335)
Invested
$29.13
Value
$29.79
PnL
+$0.65
Record
53%
5440-4884 (10324)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.99
Value
$7.99
PnL
-$0
Record
36%
3035-5349 (8384)
Invested
$6.99
Value
$6.99
PnL
-$0
Record
78%
249-70 (319)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.95
Record
41%
3059-4446 (7505)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.