Will Gideon Sa’ar receive the second mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $123 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$122.97

Combined PnL

-$3.43

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$121.2

Total Shares123

Combined PnL-$4.73

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.77

Total Shares87

Combined PnL+$1.3

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$63.39	$62.15	-$1.24	24% 91-281 (372)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 98¢	$39.57	$33.05	-$2.98	40% 3240-4885 (8125)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.46	$20.06	-$0.4	62% 463-283 (746)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.06	$5.95	-$0.12	42% 827-1152 (1979)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.39	$0.82	+$0.43	47% 4818-5478 (10296)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$26.29	$0.66	+$0.11	30% 2950-6939 (9889)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.15	$0.15	+$0	17% 92-449 (541)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$62.22	$0.15	+$0.76	29% 892-2174 (3066)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$63.39

Value

$62.15

PnL

-$1.24

Record

24%

91-281 (372)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$39.57

Value

$33.05

PnL

-$2.98

Record

40%

3240-4885 (8125)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$20.46

Value

$20.06

PnL

-$0.4

Record

62%

463-283 (746)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.06

Value

$5.95

PnL

-$0.12

Record

42%

827-1152 (1979)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.82

PnL

+$0.43

Record

47%

4818-5478 (10296)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.29

Value

$0.66

PnL

+$0.11

Record

30%

2950-6939 (9889)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0

Record

17%

92-449 (541)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.22

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.76

Record

29%

892-2174 (3066)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.