Will "Ghost Soldier" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3m?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 99¢ · $260 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$260.15

Combined PnL

-$3.69

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 99.2¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$254.43

Total Shares261

Combined PnL+$3.86

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.72

Total Shares197

Combined PnL-$7.55

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nostdam<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$85.7	$87.39	+$1.69	11% 15-117 (132)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 93¢	$69.75	$72.83	+$3.08	30% 1049-2405 (3454)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$39.78	$39.46	-$0.32	34% 236-460 (696)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$39.87	$39.46	-$0.41	39% 234-362 (596)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$8.06	$7.97	-$0.09	58% 732-525 (1257)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.17	$5.12	-$0.05	57% 714-533 (1247)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.7¢	$25.27	$2.9	-$9.04	39% 3653-5798 (9451)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.95	$2.76	+$1.81	65% 4319-2337 (6656)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$2.24	$2.2	-$0.04	49% 796-833 (1629)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$0.38	$0.07	-$0.31	42% 1631-2289 (3920)

Nostdam<$100

Invested

$85.7

Value

$87.39

PnL

+$1.69

Record

11%

15-117 (132)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$69.75

Value

$72.83

PnL

+$3.08

Record

30%

1049-2405 (3454)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$39.78

Value

$39.46

PnL

-$0.32

Record

34%

236-460 (696)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$39.87

Value

$39.46

PnL

-$0.41

Record

39%

234-362 (596)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$8.06

Value

$7.97

PnL

-$0.09

Record

58%

732-525 (1257)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$0.05

Record

57%

714-533 (1247)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.27

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$9.04

Record

39%

3653-5798 (9451)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.95

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$1.81

Record

65%

4319-2337 (6656)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.24

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.04

Record

49%

796-833 (1629)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.31

Record

42%

1631-2289 (3920)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.