Will "Ghost Soldier" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 89¢ · $693 held · ends Nov 15

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$692.9

Combined PnL

$19.66

Smart Money Entry

92.5¢ → 89¢

-4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$618.42

Total Shares644

Combined PnL+$22.31

Yes3 traders

Total Value$74.48

Total Shares883

Combined PnL-$2.65

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JokerTheClown	Noavg 91.4¢	$386.71	$414.54	+$27.83	7% 16-201 (217)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$67.36	$73.5	+$6.14	27% 1031-2734 (3765)
NostdamCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$30	$66	+$36	11% 15-117 (132)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97¢	$38.8	$35.6	-$3.2	30% 253-582 (835)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$38.94	$35.6	-$3.34	29% 1113-2674 (3787)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 97¢	$38.8	$35.6	-$3.2	40% 243-368 (611)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98¢	$18.43	$16.74	-$1.69	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$52.58	$8.41	-$38.34	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97¢	$5.03	$4.62	-$0.42	50% 763-758 (1521)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 90¢	$2.04	$2.22	+$0.18	58% 767-547 (1314)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$0.38	$0.07	-$0.31	42% 1635-2289 (3924)

JokerTheClown

Invested

$386.71

Value

$414.54

PnL

+$27.83

Record

16-201 (217)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$67.36

Value

$73.5

PnL

+$6.14

Record

27%

1031-2734 (3765)

NostdamCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$66

PnL

+$36

Record

11%

15-117 (132)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$38.8

Value

$35.6

PnL

-$3.2

Record

30%

253-582 (835)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$38.94

Value

$35.6

PnL

-$3.34

Record

29%

1113-2674 (3787)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$38.8

Value

$35.6

PnL

-$3.2

Record

40%

243-368 (611)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.43

Value

$16.74

PnL

-$1.69

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.58

Value

$8.41

PnL

-$38.34

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$4.62

PnL

-$0.42

Record

50%

763-758 (1521)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.22

PnL

+$0.18

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.31

Record

42%

1635-2289 (3924)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.