Will "Ghost Soldier" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 87¢ · $337 held · ended Nov 15

Yes13¢No87¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$336.69

Combined PnL

$2.18

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 87¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$283.39

Total Shares312

Combined PnL+$48.36

Yes3 traders

Total Value$53.3

Total Shares532

Combined PnL-$46.18

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 90.4¢	$170.45	$153.42	+$3.05	42% 5253-7309 (12562)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 22.6¢	$137.15	$50.42	-$41.73	38% 3881-6344 (10225)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 86.4¢	$133.84	$45.5	+$34.7	38% 334-535 (869)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 74¢	$29.6	$36	+$6.4	40% 280-415 (695)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 92¢	$27.6	$27.45	-$0.15	36% 355-623 (978)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 75¢	$14.11	$16.93	+$2.82	53% 7612-6705 (14317)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 56¢	$2.55	$4.09	+$1.55	56% 888-693 (1581)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$5.86	$1.69	-$2.89	35% 19-35 (54)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$19.46	$1.19	-$1.56	27% 109-299 (408)

balthazar

Invested

$170.45

Value

$153.42

PnL

+$3.05

Record

42%

5253-7309 (12562)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$137.15

Value

$50.42

PnL

-$41.73

Record

38%

3881-6344 (10225)

quietparcel

Invested

$133.84

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$34.7

Record

38%

334-535 (869)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$29.6

Value

$36

PnL

+$6.4

Record

40%

280-415 (695)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$27.6

Value

$27.45

PnL

-$0.15

Record

36%

355-623 (978)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.11

Value

$16.93

PnL

+$2.82

Record

53%

7612-6705 (14317)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

$4.09

PnL

+$1.55

Record

56%

888-693 (1581)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.86

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$2.89

Record

35%

19-35 (54)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.46

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$1.56

Record

27%

109-299 (408)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.