Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Ghost Soldier" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 1.8¢ · $467 held · ends Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

Total Value

$466.73

Combined PnL

-$601.16

Smart Money Entry

26.1¢ → 1.8¢

-93% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$369.09

Total Shares377

Combined PnL+$35.26

Yes5 traders

Total Value$97.64

Total Shares2,712

Combined PnL-$636.43

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nostdam	Noavg 82¢	$180.4	$215.6	+$35.2	11% 15-117 (132)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98¢	$78.38	$78.4	+$0.02	27% 1031-2734 (3765)
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR	Yesavg 32.4¢	$550	$61.2	-$488.8	— 11-4 (15)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 98¢	$39.2	$39.2	+$0	40% 243-368 (611)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98¢	$18.43	$18.43	+$0	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
JI jinsun...CTR	Yesavg 15.1¢	$106	$15.3	-$85.19	— 0-9 (9)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 16.5¢	$196.41	$15.15	-$38.91	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$10.12	$10.14	+$0.02	52% 810-753 (1563)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$30.57	$5.9	-$23.23	38% 18-29 (47)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98¢	$5.09	$5.09	+$0	46% 1139-1332 (2471)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 97¢	$2.2	$2.22	+$0.02	57% 747-553 (1300)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$0.38	$0.08	-$0.3	42% 1635-2289 (3924)

Nostdam

Invested

$180.4

Value

$215.6

PnL

+$35.2

Record

11%

15-117 (132)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$78.38

Value

$78.4

PnL

+$0.02

Record

27%

1031-2734 (3765)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR

Yes

Invested

$550

Value

$61.2

PnL

-$488.8

Record

—

11-4 (15)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$39.2

Value

$39.2

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

243-368 (611)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.43

Value

$18.43

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

jinsun...CTR

Yes

Invested

$106

Value

$15.3

PnL

-$85.19

Record

—

0-9 (9)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$196.41

Value

$15.15

PnL

-$38.91

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.12

Value

$10.14

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

810-753 (1563)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.57

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$23.23

Record

38%

18-29 (47)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1139-1332 (2471)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.22

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

747-553 (1300)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.3

Record

42%

1635-2289 (3924)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.0%

1.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3246.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

3346.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.