Will "Ghost Soldier" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 7m?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $199 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$198.59

Combined PnL

-$89.09

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99.8¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$196.78

Total Shares197

Combined PnL+$2.04

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.81

Total Shares724

Combined PnL-$91.13

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99¢	$74.25	$74.81	+$0.56	36% 381-683 (1064)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$39.12	$39.9	+$0.78	30% 1197-2740 (3937)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99¢	$39.6	$39.9	+$0.3	37% 359-623 (982)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$34.39	$34.72	+$0.33	40% 282-421 (703)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$5.13	$5.18	+$0.05	50% 982-981 (1963)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99¢	$2.25	$2.26	+$0.02	60% 945-637 (1582)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$54.4	$0.73	-$47.84	38% 3892-6366 (10258)
NostdamCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$2.04	$0.51	-$1.53	13% 17-119 (136)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$46.42	$0.4	-$29.4	42% 5258-7339 (12597)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$9.53	$0.14	-$9.39	38% 335-540 (875)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$1.77	$0.03	-$1.75	27% 109-300 (409)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$6.77	$0	-$1.22	23% 821-2761 (3582)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$74.25

Value

$74.81

PnL

+$0.56

Record

36%

381-683 (1064)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$39.12

Value

$39.9

PnL

+$0.78

Record

30%

1197-2740 (3937)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$39.6

Value

$39.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

37%

359-623 (982)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$34.39

Value

$34.72

PnL

+$0.33

Record

40%

282-421 (703)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.18

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

982-981 (1963)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.26

PnL

+$0.02

Record

60%

945-637 (1582)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.4

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$47.84

Record

38%

3892-6366 (10258)

NostdamCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.04

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$1.53

Record

13%

17-119 (136)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.42

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$29.4

Record

42%

5258-7339 (12597)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.53

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$9.39

Record

38%

335-540 (875)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.77

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.75

Record

27%

109-300 (409)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.77

Value

PnL

-$1.22

Record

23%

821-2761 (3582)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.