Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
-$42.76
60.4¢ → 55¢
-9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
332h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA para-VisionARB<$100 | Noavg 64.2¢ | $3.8K | $3.4K | -$318.91 | 56% 215-167 (382) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.2¢ | $3.0K | $2.6K | -$437.09 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.6¢ | $711.86 | $830.1 | +$118.18 | |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 62.3¢ | $307.64 | $212.69 | -$41.27 | 36% 15617-27548 (43165) |
GG GGLPLCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46.6¢ | $59.56 | $61.33 | -$0.78 | 50% 678-674 (1352) |
 JustADonk<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $42.85 | $44.47 | +$0.81 | 55% 894-738 (1632) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 57.4¢ | $35.64 | $28.12 | -$1.52 | 57% 13809-10582 (24391) |
Invested
$3,758.51
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$318.91
Record
56%
215-167 (382)
Both legs:
Invested
$307.64
Value
$212.69
PnL
-$41.27
Record
36%
15617-27548 (43165)
Invested
$59.56
Value
$61.33
PnL
-$0.78
Record
50%
678-674 (1352)
JustADonk<$100Invested
$42.85
Value
$44.47
PnL
+$0.81
Record
55%
894-738 (1632)
Invested
$35.64
Value
$28.12
PnL
-$1.52
Record
57%
13809-10582 (24391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.