Will Gemini Krypton debut in the top 3 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 33%
$2.0K
-$97.09
64.5¢ → 82¢
+27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 iutwpfal | Yesavg 64.5¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$0 | — 12-4 (16) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $67.71 | $31.11 | -$36.6 | 10% 15-130 (145) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.8¢ | $49.41 | $24.83 | -$24.57 | 39% 3600-5658 (9258) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $37.95 | $19.55 | -$18.4 | 23% 515-1706 (2221) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $13.8 | $12.9 | -$0.9 | 40% 14-21 (35) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 17¢ | $15.3 | $12.25 | +$0.35 | 44% 5036-6461 (11497) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $16.59 | $7.83 | -$8.76 | 16% 22-118 (140) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $3.87 | $3.29 | -$0.58 | 53% 6888-6032 (12920) |
 HoshinoAI<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $55.18 | $1.77 | -$7.63 | 31% 20-45 (65) |
iutwpfalInvested
$1,883.49
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
—
12-4 (16)
Invested
$67.71
Value
$31.11
PnL
-$36.6
Record
10%
15-130 (145)
Invested
$49.41
Value
$24.83
PnL
-$24.57
Record
39%
3600-5658 (9258)
Invested
$37.95
Value
$19.55
PnL
-$18.4
Record
23%
515-1706 (2221)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$12.9
PnL
-$0.9
Record
40%
14-21 (35)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$15.3
Value
$12.25
PnL
+$0.35
Record
44%
5036-6461 (11497)
Invested
$16.59
Value
$7.83
PnL
-$8.76
Record
16%
22-118 (140)
Invested
$3.87
Value
$3.29
PnL
-$0.58
Record
53%
6888-6032 (12920)
HoshinoAI<$100Invested
$55.18
Value
$1.77
PnL
-$7.63
Record
31%
20-45 (65)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.