Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 74¢ · $590 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$590.18
$58.9
70.1¢ → 74¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 71.3¢ | $326.59 | $238.53 | -$38.65 | 23% 290-994 (1284) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 71.3¢ | $181.02 | $185.24 | +$4.25 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 35.6¢ | $90.36 | $53.29 | -$42.9 | |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 70¢ | $137.94 | $166.44 | +$28.5 | 53% 1116-997 (2113) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 69¢ | $108.31 | $128.57 | +$20.25 | 56% 15272-11802 (27074) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Yesavg 75¢ | $33.75 | $32.85 | -$0.9 | 36% 2033-3639 (5672) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 18.1¢ | $174.16 | $22.25 | +$23.44 | 36% 15138-27265 (42403) |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 22.9¢ | $107.61 | $1.55 | -$12.39 | 42% 5202-7132 (12334) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$326.59
Value
$238.53
PnL
-$38.65
Record
23%
290-994 (1284)
Both legs:
Invested
$137.94
Value
$166.44
PnL
+$28.5
Record
53%
1116-997 (2113)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$108.31
Value
$128.57
PnL
+$20.25
Record
56%
15272-11802 (27074)
Invested
$33.75
Value
$32.85
PnL
-$0.9
Record
36%
2033-3639 (5672)
Invested
$174.16
Value
$22.25
PnL
+$23.44
Record
36%
15138-27265 (42403)
Invested
$107.61
Value
$1.55
PnL
-$12.39
Record
42%
5202-7132 (12334)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.