Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$1.8K
$47.43
Research grade
NeutralYes at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Yesavg 90¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$28.23 | 74% 2723-977 (3700) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 10¢ | $50.16 | $117.48 | +$67.32 | 36% 15244-27336 (42580) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 7.6¢ | $17.81 | $24.46 | +$6.65 | 61% 20926-13319 (34245) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | No | $3.25 | $3.25 | +$1.68 | 57% 590-440 (1030) |
viniiInvested
$1,814.76
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$28.23
Record
74%
2723-977 (3700)
Invested
$50.16
Value
$117.48
PnL
+$67.32
Record
36%
15244-27336 (42580)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$17.81
Value
$24.46
PnL
+$6.65
Record
61%
20926-13319 (34245)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.25
PnL
+$1.68
Record
57%
590-440 (1030)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.