Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 98¢ · $283 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$283.4
-$2.6
96.6¢ → 98¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Yesavg 97.2¢ | $249.65 | $245.2 | -$3.78 | 24% 285-894 (1179) |
HI hithitfar<$100 | Yesavg 91.1¢ | $72.06 | $24.38 | +$3.93 | 57% 563-428 (991) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 10.7¢ | $8.49 | $6.32 | -$2.17 | 36% 14999-27063 (42062) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $2.06 | $5.49 | +$3.43 | 36% 2031-3630 (5661) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 6¢ | $6.02 | $2.01 | -$4.01 | 42% 5200-7124 (12324) |
IstarothInvested
$249.65
Value
$245.2
PnL
-$3.78
Record
24%
285-894 (1179)
Invested
$72.06
Value
$24.38
PnL
+$3.93
Record
57%
563-428 (991)
Invested
$8.49
Value
$6.32
PnL
-$2.17
Record
36%
14999-27063 (42062)
Invested
$2.06
Value
$5.49
PnL
+$3.43
Record
36%
2031-3630 (5661)
Invested
$6.02
Value
$2.01
PnL
-$4.01
Record
42%
5200-7124 (12324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.