Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 29, 2026?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $0 held · ends Nov 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.24

Combined PnL

-$8.89

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.24

Total Shares474

Combined PnL-$8.89

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$2.9	$0.1	-$0.3	35% 19615-37161 (56776)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.55	$0.08	-$4.89	53% 12738-11372 (24110)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.86	$0.05	-$2.81	23% 1826-6151 (7977)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.56	$0.01	-$0.89	19% 2965-12539 (15504)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

35%

19615-37161 (56776)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$4.89

Record

53%

12738-11372 (24110)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.81

Record

23%

1826-6151 (7977)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.89

Record

19%

2965-12539 (15504)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.