Will Gavin McKenna win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 73¢ · $3K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$3.1K
$169.61
70.5¢ → 73¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nooserac | Noavg 69.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$13.28 | 52% 5750-5326 (11076) |
RO roldyCTR | Yesavg 25.4¢ | $404.9 | $494.08 | +$89.18 | 55% 1410-1176 (2586) |
 KnureKnumeCTR | Yesavg 24.5¢ | $511.94 | $415.53 | +$83.43 | 48% 396-431 (827) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 75.6¢ | $468.03 | $272.93 | -$11.99 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75.6¢ | $229.05 | $212.05 | -$50.47 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.3¢ | $53.37 | $60.88 | +$38.48 | |
 JustADonk | Noavg 78.8¢ | $241.62 | $214.61 | -$16.28 | 55% 885-723 (1608) |
NooseracInvested
$1,709.43
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$13.28
Record
52%
5750-5326 (11076)
Invested
$404.9
Value
$494.08
PnL
+$89.18
Record
55%
1410-1176 (2586)
KnureKnumeCTRInvested
$511.94
Value
$415.53
PnL
+$83.43
Record
48%
396-431 (827)
Invested
$468.03
Value
$272.93
PnL
-$11.99
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
Both legs:
JustADonkInvested
$241.62
Value
$214.61
PnL
-$16.28
Record
55%
885-723 (1608)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.